Moving average calculator
4-point moving averages
175 to 189
- First moving average
- 175
- Last moving average
- 189
| Values | Total | Moving average | Plot at time |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 to 4 | 700 | 175 | 2.5 |
| 2 to 5 | 712 | 178 | 3.5 |
| 3 to 6 | 728 | 182 | 4.5 |
| 4 to 7 | 744 | 186 | 5.5 |
| 5 to 8 | 756 | 189 | 6.5 |
Working
- Each 4-point moving average is the mean of 4 values in a row; then move along one value and repeat. 8 values give 5 moving averages.
- Values 1 to 4: 120 + 180 + 260 + 140 = 700; ÷ 4 = 175, plotted halfway between times 2 and 3.
- Values 2 to 5: 180 + 260 + 140 + 132 = 712; ÷ 4 = 178, plotted halfway between times 3 and 4.
- Values 3 to 6: 260 + 140 + 132 + 196 = 728; ÷ 4 = 182, plotted halfway between times 4 and 5.
- Values 4 to 7: 140 + 132 + 196 + 276 = 744; ÷ 4 = 186, plotted halfway between times 5 and 6.
- Values 5 to 8: 132 + 196 + 276 + 152 = 756; ÷ 4 = 189, plotted halfway between times 6 and 7.
- The moving averages go from 175 to 189: a rising trend of about 3.5 per time period. Draw a trend line through the plotted moving averages.
Your result
175 to 189. The trend is rising by about 3.5 per time period once the seasonal ups and downs are smoothed out.
Practise moving averages
Your mock plan, in three taps
A 4-point moving average is the mean of 4 values in a row: quarterly visitors 120, 180, 260 and 140 give 700 ÷ 4 = 175, plotted halfway between the 2nd and 3rd quarters.
Questions people ask
How do you work out a 4-point moving average?
Add the first four values and divide by 4. Then drop the first value, add the fifth and divide by 4 again, and so on. Quarterly visitors of 120, 180, 260 and 140 give 700 ÷ 4 = 175.
Where do you plot a moving average?
At the middle of the values it averages. The first 4-point moving average goes halfway between the 2nd and 3rd time points; a 3-point one goes on the 2nd.
How many points should a moving average use?
As many as there are seasons in one cycle: 4 for quarterly data, 12 for monthly data and 7 for daily data over weeks. Then each average covers one full cycle, which removes the seasonal pattern.
How do you find the seasonal variation?
Draw the trend line through the moving averages. For a time point, seasonal variation = actual value − the trend line's value at that point. The mean of these for one season is the mean seasonal variation.
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How we work this out
What it does
Work out 4-point (or any n-point) moving averages, see where each one is plotted and read off the trend.
Up to 40 values in time order and moving averages of 2 to 12 points.
Method
- An n-point moving average is the mean of n values in a row; move along one value and repeat.
- Each moving average is plotted at the middle of its n time points, so a 4-point one sits halfway between the 2nd and 3rd.
- The trend line is drawn through the plotted moving averages.