GCSE Maths revision · Higher: probability and statistics

Conditional probability

Higher only

The idea

P(A∣B)P(A \mid B) is the probability of AA given that BB has happened. Only look at the outcomes where BB happened: P(A∣B)=P(A∩B)P(B)P(A \mid B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)}.

  1. Find the group you are told about: that is the new total.
  2. Count how many of that group also have AA.
  3. Divide the two.

Watch out The total changes to the group you are given.

See it worked

Worked exampleNon-calculator3 marks

A theatre sells 48 tickets. Of these, 18 are child tickets. Twelve of the child tickets and 21 of the adult tickets are for the evening performance. One of the evening tickets is selected at random. Work out the probability that it is a child ticket. Give a fraction in its simplest form.

  1.  12+2112+21
  2.  12/3312/33
  3. Condition on the evening performance: there are 12 + 21 = 33 eligible tickets.
  4. Of these, 12 are child tickets, so the probability is 12/33 = 4/11.

Answer 4/11

Your turn

Question 1Calculator allowed4 marks

At a club, 80 members are surveyed. There are 46 members who cycle to the club, including 18 who also swim. Of the members who do not cycle, 12 swim. One member who does not swim is chosen at random. Work out the probability that this member cycles. Give a fraction in its simplest form.

Question 2Non-calculator4 marks

Box A has 3 red and 2 blue counters. Box B has 1 red and 4 blue counters. A box is chosen with probability 2/3 for A and 1/3 for B, then one counter is chosen randomly from that box.

(a) Find the probability of a red counter.

(b) Given that the counter is red, find the probability it came from A.

Question 3Calculator allowed3 marks

Three sensors A, B and C work independently. The probabilities that A and B work are 0.8 and 0.6 respectively. An alarm operates if at least two sensors work. The probability that the alarm operates is 0.7. Given that the alarm operates, work out the probability that all three sensors work. Give a fraction in its simplest form. You must show your working.

In past papers

46 official questions in 44 papers since 2017. The latest:

All GCSE Maths past papers

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