GCSE Maths revision · Probability and statistics

Tree diagrams

Foundation and Higher

The idea

On a tree diagram, multiply along the branches for 'and', and add the end results for 'or'. Without replacement, the second set of branches changes because there is one fewer item.

  1. Write the probabilities on each branch; branches from the same point add to 11.
  2. Multiply along each path you need.
  3. Add the paths that give the outcome you want.

Watch out Without replacement, take one off the total (and off that colour) for the second pick.

See it worked

Worked exampleNon-calculator4 marks

The probability that it rains on any day is 0.3. Assume the weather on Monday and on Tuesday is independent.

(a) Work out the probability that it rains on both days.

(b) Work out the probability that it rains on neither day.

  1. (a) Independent events: multiply. 0.3×0.3=0.090.3 \times 0.3 = 0.09.
  2. (b) P(no rain) =0.7= 0.7 each day: 0.7×0.7=0.490.7 \times 0.7 = 0.49.

Answer (a) 0.09; (b) 0.49

Your turn

Question 1Non-calculator2 marks

A bag contains 2 blue counters and 5 white counters. A counter is taken at random, replaced, and then another counter is taken at random. Work out the probability that both counters are blue. Give a fraction in its simplest form.

Question 2Non-calculator4 marks

A bag contains 5 red counters and 3 blue counters. Two counters are taken at random, one after the other, without replacement.

Work out the probability that both counters are the same colour.

Question 3Non-calculator3 marks

A box contains 4 green balls and 6 yellow balls. Three balls are taken at random without replacement.

Work out the probability that at least one of the balls is green.

In past papers

116 official questions in 102 papers since 2017. The latest:

All GCSE Maths past papers

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